"We are reviewing our outlook for GDP growth at a slight low, still expecting a rise above 4 percent," the bank's chief economist, José Miguel Cerdeira, told Lusa, following the analysis note. on the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter.
In May, BFA predicted that Angola's GDP would grow between 5.2 and 5.7 percent this year, which would be the highest growth rate since 2012, when the national economy grew by 8.5 percent.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that the country will grow 2.9 percent this year, in line with the government's official forecast, which is around 3 percent.
Angola's GDP grew by 3.6 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2021, and accelerated by 0.5 percent compared to the growth recorded in the first quarter of this year, according to official data from the National Statistics Institute. which registered an accumulated growth of 3.2 percent in the first half of this year.
Compared to figures for the same period last year, the diamond sector represented, in the second quarter, the industry with the highest growth, growing by more than 40 percent, according to a note released in Luanda at the beginning of the month.
"The economy as a whole is accelerating, but with different trends in the oil and non-oil sector", comment the BFA analysts, stressing that "the oil economy that grew for the second time since 2016, as a result of new production in several blocks, will probably continue at the same pace as the last two quarters, for the whole of the semester, and could pick up punctually in the third quarter, but offsetting with lower growth in the last quarter of the year".
The non-oil economy, added in the note from BFA, "should accelerate, especially on the side of private consumption, to values close to those observed in the first half of 2021, which will cause GDP to grow above 4 percent in total of the year".
"In 2023, we expect GDP to grow much more slowly, but mainly due to the contribution of Petroleum GDP, which will once again be quite negative - more importantly for the living conditions of Angolans, Non-Oil GDP should return to grow significantly, possibly above 5 percent", says the BFA.
The GDP of the oil sector "may fall by more than 6 percent, potentially, which would lead the GDP as a whole to grow by only 2 to 3 percent, accelerating again to a rate between 3 and 4 percent." percent in 2024 and 2025", conclude the analysts.
