"We anticipate the inflation rate to increase marginally to 22.4 percent this year, before slowing to 14.5 percent in 2022, and given the high level of inflation and negative real interest rates, we do not expect the National Bank of Angola to lower its benchmark interest rate before 2022," the analysts say.
According to a commentary on last year's inflation figures, which rose to 22.3 percent from 17.1 percent in 2019, this African branch of the British consultancy Oxford Economics writes that "this happened essentially due to the fall in oil prices and the 2019 currency liberalization, which caused the kwanza to lose about 26 percent of its value last year."
In the commentary, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the analysts point out that the kwanza fell to its lowest level ever in mid-November, when it took 653 kwanzas to buy a dollar, and warn that "although the national currency has strengthened in line with rising oil prices, it remains vulnerable to changes in global sentiment and is expected to depreciate 18 percent this year."
Inflation in the country rose 24.4 percent in January from the same period last year, registering a 1.5 percent increase from the price rise recorded in December, the National Statistics Institute disclosed Monday.
"The year-on-year change stands at 24.41 percent, an increase of 6.46 percentage points in relation to the same period last year," the note released in Luanda said.
"Comparing the current year-on-year change with that recorded in the previous month (December 2020) there is a decrease of 0.68 percentage points," the statement added.
