"The US attitude towards Angola has always been ambivalent, and it will not be now that it will embark on a path of confrontation, when Angola has become an important ally, for two very real reasons", he begins by referring to Cedesa in an analysis with the title: "Angolan Elections of 2022 and the United States of America".
According to that group of academics, Angola has become an important ally of the USA, because, especially under the leadership of João Lourenço, the country "has played a role of pacification in its zone of influence".
"Remember that Angola helped a peaceful and electoral broadcast in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), tries to establish some tranquility between the triangle DRC, Uganda and Rwanda, besides having contributed decisively to the recent peace in the Central African Republic (RCA)", refer to in the document.
Cedesa academics also recall that, at the CAR, "President Touadéra highlighted the key role played by the Angolan state in achieving peace".
Thus, "Angola is an ally of US peace in Africa and, obviously, the Americans will not neglect Angola's diplomatic and military support and collaboration for African tranquility," they said.
At the same time, "it is a strong bulwark against any penetration of Islamic terrorism," they add.
But for Cedesa, there is yet another reason why the country has become an ally of the US, which also has to do with its foreign policy strategy towards China.
"It is clear that Angola is currently following a new foreign policy, intending to 'detach itself' from the excessive dependence on China", stresses the analysis.
"Now, given its experience with China, which pioneered intervention in Africa and the current attempt at a more Western foreign policy, Angola is an experimental platform par excellence for US policy towards China, where the real ones will be tested. implications of this policy and the extent to which the American effort to counterbalance China will go," consider analysts in the document that Lusa had access to.
Therefore, they conclude that "an American failure with Angola will be a global failure of its strategic approach to China".
"Here, as in the Cold War in relation to the Soviet Union, the reality of the American action in relation to China will be measured", they maintain.
For Cedesa, the focus of the US strategy "was placed on China and its control and more generally on Asia".
"Strategic competition" is the framework through which the United States views its relationship with the People's Republic of China, the document states.
"The United States will approach its relationship with the PRC from a position of strength," in which it will work closely with its allies and partners to defend its interests and values, they recall.
In this context, for Cedesa, there is no doubt about what the US wants from Africa: that it "doesn't bother them and provide some economic profits".
Following this strategy, the US has handed over a good part of the anti-terrorist fight to France and counts on African countries to guarantee local stability, pursuing strong alliances with some of them, they indicate.
And only if US national interest and security are affected by Islamic terrorism, "the United States will intervene strongly."
"There is no US willingness to get inside any imbroglio in Africa," the document reads.
"All things considered, it does not seem that the [US President's] Biden Administration is embarking on any harassment or change in relation to the João Lourenço government, as this does not correspond to American interests vis-à-vis Africa and even in relation to China," they conclude.
Therefore, "all the rumors in another sense should be seen as part of the Angolan internal struggle and not any muscular American positioning", he considers.
The rumors referred to by Cedesa are of "a possible increased interest of the United States in the Angolan elections", which could lead the Western power to demand that the electoral process in the African country have impartial international observers, who guarantee the electoral truth. In addition to the "threat of possible sanctions against the government of João Lourenço if it did not comply with these American recommendations".
"In particular, it is announced that the Biden Administration has been threatening the application of financial sanctions, visa restrictions and travel bans against government officials who undermine the elections in their countries regarding Angola", mentions Cedesa in the analysis.
