"At Fitch Solutions, we expect Angola's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 4 percent in 2022, up from an estimated 0.6 percent in 2021, which highlights an upward revision from our previous projection of 3.5 percent, made to reflect growth in the second quarter, above expectations", reads an analysis note to the Angolan economy.
For analysts at Fitch Solutions, owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings, the review of growth forecast for this year is based "on a combination of lower inflation and better monetary conditions, in addition to gains in the oil sector, which will accelerate growth overall this year".
In the note sent to customers, which Lusa had access to, Fitch Solutions points out, however, that the forecast for 2023 is for a slowdown, essentially due to "headwinds in the national oil sector".
Production is expected to fall 3.5 percent due to chronic under-investment and the fact that wells are running out, in addition to falling prices, which will amplify the effect of reduced production.
Thus, they conclude, it will be the non-oil sector, mainly, that will sustain growth, with inflation falling to 14 percent and the National Bank of Angola cutting the reference interest rate to 17 percent by the end of the year.
