"Angola's strong growth this year will hardly extend to 2023, as oil production is expected to return to a downward trend", reads an analysis of the largest economies in sub-Saharan Africa, a region that should see this year's GDP expand. up 3.3 percent, slowing down from 4.4 percent last year.
"We expect a reduction in growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year, in a context in which high inflation limits household spending and slowing external demand influences exports", say analysts at this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch. ratings.
In the analysis, sent to customers and to which Lusa had access, Fitch Solutions says that "in 2023 growth is expected to increase to 3.7 percent, with price pressures easing and demand from China recovering".
About Angola, analysts write that "GDP growth accelerated from 2.4 percent in the last quarter of last year to 2.6 percent in the first quarter of this year, partially driven by the oil sector."
By the end of the year, GDP expansion is expected to accelerate, leading to an increase in national wealth by 3.5 percent, the fastest growth since 2014, essentially "at the expense of greater gains in the oil sector, due to the acceleration of production in several small projects operated by TotalEnergies and BP, which boost exports".
For this year, Fitch Solutions anticipates that inflation will fall from 25.7 percent in 2021 to 20 percent, which "softens the pressure on consumers' purchasing power", but warns that, despite the drop in inflation to 14 percent next year is positive for consumer spending, oil production is forecast to fall by 3.5 percent due to chronic divestment and drying up of wells, which will cause real GDP growth to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2023".