"We anticipate that the kwanza will depreciate marginally in the rest of the year to 470 kwanzas per dollar, after having appreciated in 2021 and until the second quarter of 2022", write the analysts of this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings.
In the analysis note on the evolution of the kwanza, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, Fitch Solutions writes that "in the short term, the lower appetite of investors for emerging market currencies will lead to pressures for depreciation", so the forecast points to Angola's national currency falling 7.3 percent in 2023, to an average of 499 kwanzas per dollar, "essentially due to the slowdown in international prices and domestic oil production".
In the next three to six months, Fitch Solutions says that the kwanza will counter the 18 percent appreciation from January to now, and should end the year at around 453.93 kwanzas to the dollar, which means an appreciation of 26.4 percent, comparing the 2021 average with the 2022 exchange rate average.
The forecast for next year points to a devaluation of 7.3 percent, to an average of 499 kwanzas per dollar, essentially due to the reduction in oil prices by 4.8 percent to an average of 100 dollars per barrel, and the fall in domestic production, which is expected to fall by 3.5 percent next year "due to the chronic disinvestment in the oil sector and the exhaustion of some wells", the analysts conclude.
