Kwanza appreciated 2.3 percent by the end of August

"During most of the year so far, high oil prices have helped the kwanza recoup some of the heavy losses it has suffered over the past three years; the Angolan currency has appreciated 2.3 percent to 634.6 kwanzas to the dollar between December 31, 2020 and August 30" this year, reads an analysis by NKC African Economics of the evolution of the national currency.

"Although the currency's decline in 2020 and improved risk aversion alleviated short-term risks, the kwanza will likely remain under pressure due to the country's heavy dependence on the oil sector, which is facing a decline in production due to operational problems and lack of investment", the analysts point out, in the note that Lusa had access to.

In analyzing the kwanza, the African branch of British consultancy Oxford Economics warns that "speculators have pushed oil prices too fast and too high" and predicts that oil "should peak in the third quarter and then return home from $70 at the end of the year," regressing from the 41 percent rise in price between January and August.

As a result, they add, "the kwanza exchange rate is expected to cancel out some of the recent gains and end the year at 648.8 kwanzas to the dollar, which compares with an average of 578.3 last year."

Over the past year, the kwanza lost 26 percent of its value against the dollar following the economic crisis induced by the covid-19 pandemic, which led to the cancellation of much of the economic activity in order to combat the spread of the virus.

"This accelerated a significant weakening of the kwanza, which followed the lifting of several exchange restrictions in October 2019", which led, analysts conclude, to an increase in the difference between the official exchange rate and the parallel market rate , which is currently around 11 percent.