"The disappointing production in Angola, the second largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, should explain the decline of 550,000 barrels per day in 2028 compared to production levels in 2019," the year in which Angola pumped 1.3 million barrels per day, reads the report on the oil and gas sector in this region.
In the report, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the analysts of this consultancy owned by the same group that owns the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings write that it is not only in Angola that production should decrease or slow down from current levels.
"Substantial new investment is needed to offset the expected rates of decline in the region," the report says, which forecasts a 0.03 percent contraction in this year's oil production in the region.
"We expect regional production to peak at 5.2 million barrels per day in 2026 after posting comfortable 3 percent growth last year and falling 0.03 percent this year," analysts say.
"Overall, the oil and gas sector has struggled with the consequences of reduced demand, overproduction and the prospect of low prices, among other factors," they say, noting that the major international oil companies have focused more on cost containment than on launching new investments, despite some recent discoveries in the region.
In 2019 Angola exported around 479 million barrels of oil at an average price of 65.2 dollars per barrel, totaling revenues of 31.2 billion dollars, according to data presented at the end of January by the National Directorate for Markets and Trade Promotion of the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Petroleum (MIREMPET).
Divided over 365 days, this annual production gives an average of 1.312 million barrels per day in 2019. Using this figure to calculate the reduction of 550 thousand barrels per day, we arrive at the number of 762 thousand barrels per day in 2028, as forecast by Fitch Solutions.
Angola would produce a total of 278.1 million barrels in the year, which, maintaining the price, would represent a cash inflow of 18.1 billion dollars, a loss of 41 percent compared to the 31.2 billion dollars exported.