Ver Angola


Moody's: Debt puts Angola among the most vulnerable countries to financial shocks

Moody's financial ratings agency considers that Angola is among the countries most susceptible to a financial shock due to the change in the debt structure, which together with Mozambique exceeds 100 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).


"The change in the composition of lenders has increased credit risks in several countries, in a context of increased access to capital markets, domestic and international issues of debt securities have increased, while the percentage of loans from multilateral institutions has fallen," write Moody's analysts.

The agency mentions the Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Zambia, Ghana, Angola and Kenya as the countries most exposed to this change.

"While there has been a diversification of funding sources, increased investor scrutiny of macroeconomic and fiscal policy, and also secured much needed development finance, it has also increased exposure to global financing conditions, amplified exposure to exchange rate variations, as in Angola, and increased debt refinancing risks, as in Zambia," Moody's says.

In a comment sent to clients, and to which Lusa had access, analysts warned that Angola and Mozambique are the two countries, of the 16 analysed in sub-Saharan Africa, where the percentage of debt over GDP, above 100 percent, is the highest.

The debt has increased and "the capacity to repay it has deteriorated," they warn, pointing out that "public debt now represents more than 50 per cent of GDP in more than half of the countries" analysed by Moody's in this region and, at the same time, "the increase in dependence on private creditors has weakened metrics in most cases.

Angola and Mozambique, analysts say, were the two countries that saw the debt to GDP ratio increase the most, representing, in both cases, figures above 100 per cent of GDP.

In addition to the figures, analysts also draw attention to the weaknesses in public debt management, noting that more than a third of Angola's debt is issued in foreign currency, making this country the most vulnerable to shocks in the foreign exchange market, as happened last year.

The rise in public debt in relation to GDP in sub-Saharan Africa has been one of the most developed issues in reports on this region, due to the danger this poses to economies in terms of their ability to make the public investments necessary for development and, at the same time, have sufficient budgetary margin to honour financial commitments.

Moody's gives Angola a B3 rating, with Perspective of Stable Evolution, and Mozambique a Caa2 rating, Stable, both below the investment recommendation.

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