"Angola is very likely to emerge from the four-year recession in 2020; for the first time since 2016, oil production is expected to grow, with our forecast of 5.6 percent growth in oil production to 1.43 million barrels per day this year," economists say.
In the most recent report on African economies, sent to clients and accessed by Lusa, analysts at this South African bank praise the "reformist impetus" of President João Lourenço, and write that political stability should be maintained until the next elections, considering also that the increase in demonstrations in the country demonstrates more freedom of association than discontent with the economic situation.
On inflation, they write that it should stay at 24.3 per cent this year and 25.4 per cent next year, rising from 17.1 per cent in 2019, while public accounts should be balanced this year, then improving to a surplus of 1.2 per cent in 2021.
Public debt is expected to have increased to 112.6 per cent of tax revenue this year, and 110 per cent of GDP in 2019, which should lead the Government to continue to invest in international markets while trying to renegotiate bilateral loans.
"We anticipate that the government will continue to go to the markets to issue Eurobonds, since the national debt strategy is to replace the debt that has oil as collateral with debt without guarantees, which was already done with Brazil last year, is now being negotiated with Israel and will probably also be negotiated with China".