"The Angolan economy is going to struggle to register growth levels similar to those of the period prior to the collapse of the price of raw materials, between 2014 and 2016; limited investment in the dominant hydrocarbon sector will weigh on growth, with structural obstacles to hamper the implementation of faster economic diversification ", reads the report.
In the ten-year analysis of the Angolan economy, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, analysts of this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings write that "the economic recovery will continue relatively slow in the next decade due to the stagnation of the oil sector ".
After three years of recession, Fitch Solutions forecasts "real growth of just 1.9 percent per year between 2019 and 2028, well below the 6.4 percent average between 2006 and 2015" and warns that 2020 it will be marked by a new recession, forecasted at 0.3 percent, before returning to growth next year, with an expansion of 1.8 percent, "but with risks tending to a more negative value".
The risks, explain the analysts, "are mainly negative, since the external position of the economy was vulnerable to future shocks during the fall in oil prices, between 2014 and 2016".
The oil sector, moreover, is a constant throughout the report, which shows a negative outlook for this sector, which accounts for more than 90 percent of the country's exports and around 70 percent of tax revenues.
"With slow economic diversification, growth is dependent on the oil sector, but falling prices have forced operators worldwide to cut spending, particularly in Angola, where sentiment has worsened due to disputes with Sonangol," writes Fitch Solutions.
The consultant points out that "without significant investment, declining wells in Angola will gradually bring production down over the next few years to an average of 4.3 percent per year between 2020 and 2029".
YEAR...GNP
2020....-0,3%
2021.....1,8
2022.....2,7
2023.....2,7
2024.....2,7
2025.....3,5
2026.....3,5
2027.....3,6
2028.....3,8
2029.....4,0
