"We anticipate that the kwanza will appreciate 15.1 percent, on average, to 514.39 kwanzas per dollar in 2022, after a strong performance in 2021", reads an analysis of the evolution of the main African currencies in the past year and this year.
In the report, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, these analysts of the consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings write that "although oil production continued to fall during 2021, improvements in terms of trade, in a context of rising oil prices, resulted in an appreciation of the currency, particularly in the last quarter of last year".
The analysis by Fitch Solutions comes days after the National Institute of Statistics of Angola reported a growth of 0.8 percent in GDP in the third quarter compared to the same period of the previous year and of 0.3 percent compared to the second quarter of 2021, and after the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings improved Angola's rating by two levels, from CCC to B-, but still five below the investment recommendation level.
"We also expect domestic oil production to grow by 4.4 percent this year, after five years of decline, further increasing demand for kwanzas", reads the report, which nevertheless warns that "the high inflation and unemployment will continue to hurt the non-oil economy".
On the sub-Saharan Africa region as a whole, analysts estimate a "moderate depreciation trend in 2022", pointing out that the strengthening of the dollar, particularly in the second half, "will put downward pressure on all currencies in the region in the short term".
Even so, "with high oil prices and improved production benefiting the region's main producers, Nigeria and Angola", Fitch Solutions anticipates a "slight devaluation of the naira in Nigeria, as demand for imports continues to be greater than the pace of exports".
