"The recent restructuring with some large creditors and the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) has generated savings and reduced medium-term financing needs," said the IMF spokesman in an interview with Lusa, arguing that the debt is sustainable.
"We assess Angola's debt as sustainable without further restructuring and we hope it will remain sustainable over the medium term," added the Fund's spokesman in an interview with Lusa anticipating some of the recommendations in the full report of the fourth assessment to the assistance program. which was approved last week and allowed an additional disbursement of US $ 487.5 million and which will be released soon.
Asked about the possibility of Angola having to restructure the debt this year and start negotiations with private creditors, as several analysts say, the IMF spokesman said he did not and explained that "henceforth, the authorities plan to work to improve its strategy. debt management as part of its effort to improve the dynamics of Angolan public debt ".
This will be done, he added, "in conjunction with conservative budget execution", although "the authorities plan to continue to be prepared to act and mitigate the impact of possible shocks on the Angolan economy and its possible negative effect on this debt dynamics. public ".
In addition to the US $ 6.2 billion, the payment of which Angola was able to postpone to Chinese creditors, DSSI membership also guaranteed a moratorium on the payment of US $ 1.8 billion in debt to the G20 countries.
According to the Fund's most recent forecasts, Angola is expected to recover from the 4 per cent economic recession in 2020, growing 3.2 per cent already this year, also improving the 2.8 per cent budget deficit to a slight imbalance of 0 , 1 percent in 2021.
Public debt, which rose from 90 percent in 2018 to 120 percent last year, is also expected to improve to 107.5 percent this year, still well above the average of 64 percent the Fund expects for the economies of the world. Sub-Saharan Africa and the 46.4 percent it predicts for oil-exporting countries this year.
Asked whether Angola's debt, which together with Eritrea, Mozambique and Cape Verde, were the four highest in 2020, is sustainable given the financing costs and the comparison with other African economies, the IMF spokesman maintained the idea of a Financial Default is not on the horizon.
"The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline rapidly, underpinned by the structural fiscal consolidation of the authorities, which is also expected to be sustained by the large percentage of oil revenues in total revenues, which provides a natural medium-term 'cushion' against the currency shock. that led to an increase in the debt ratio, "argued the spokesman.
This means, he added, "that Angola's ability to honor commitments is not as negatively affected [as in other countries]", and on the other hand debt restructuring has reduced the need for financing from 2021 onwards.
The financial adjustment program was agreed with the IMF in December 2018, for a value of US $ 3.7 billion, which in September was increased to approximately US $ 4.5 billion, of which about 3 billion dollars have already been delivered, and it lasts until the end of the year.
Asked whether the IMF is already preparing new aid to Angola, the spokesman said only that "the current focus of the authorities is to maintain macroeconomic stability and progress on the reform agenda under the agreement, and discussions on future involvement are going to happen during this year ".
Regarding the compliance criteria, goals and parameters of the program, which were changed at the request of Luanda and with the agreement of the IMF, the spokesman declined to disclose them, referring the explanation for the release of the report of the technical team, that should happen this week.
