"Unfortunately, for us Angolans, it seems that the perfect storm has been created, an economic crisis that has now been associated with a pandemic crisis," said Alves da Rocha, at the opening of the Angola Forum organized by the Royal Institute of International Relations Chatham House.
According to projections up to 2025-2026, according to the academic, "the recovery will take time, (...) with low, although positive, GDP growth rates [Gross Domestic Product]."
According to a study carried out in April by the Center for Studies and Scientific Research of the Catholic University of Angola, of which Alves da Rocha is director, GDP will contract by 6.8 percent in 2020.
If these forecasts are projected for the social area, the academic foresees a "social regression" reflected by the decrease in the [annual] GDP per inhabitant, an indicator that predicts that it will fall to 1700 dollars, against 5600 dollars in 2014.
"I am very apprehensive about the economic and social situation in my country and its repercussions from a political point of view, and when will we be able to reverse this negative dynamics of GDP growth. There have been opportunities to do so, but we have lost those opportunities" he lamented.
Standard Bank's chief economist, Fáusio Mussa, said there were signs that 2021 could be a year of economic recovery for Angola, but he warned of risk factors such as the outcome of the United States of America elections, the way in which the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the intensity of China's economic recovery.
"We see Angola still in recession next year and even temporarily leaving the recession in 2022, it seems that the economy will not be able to cope in 2023, mainly due to the maturity of the oil fields, which may have an impact on oil production," he warned.
The two economists were speaking at the opening session of the annual event, this time held in a 'virtual' way, which will discuss reforms and political priorities to promote Angola's economic recovery from the covid-19 pandemic and also the drop in oil prices. oil, a sector on which the country's economy depends.
An intervention by the President of the Republic of Angola, João Lourenço, initially announced was canceled.
The event runs until Tuesday and will include interventions by officials from official organizations and civil society and political parties.
