Eurasia: Angola should not ask for new IMF program to increase pre-election spending

"Angola is unlikely to proceed with a second IMF program until after the 2022 elections due to increased pressure on public spending to sustain support for the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA)," reads a comment to evolution of the economic situation in the country.

In the commentary, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, analysts write that "the withdrawal of subsidies, the slowdown of the Angolan economy and the failure of the ruling party to guarantee some electoral promises led to a decline in support in traditional strongholds ".

For analysts at this consultancy, "the growing electoral competition posed by the formation of an opposition coalition and the changes to the electoral law have increased the risk of further political protests in the run-up to the 2022 elections".

These elections, they conclude, "may be the most competitive presidential campaign of the post-war era, mainly due to the fact that the MPLA faces for the first time a united opposition led by Adalberto da Costa Júnior", leader of the National Union for Total Independence of Angola (UNITA).

This strengthening of the opposition "may make the President, João Lourenço, delay the reduction of fuel subsidies and accelerate the pace of programs to attract foreign direct investment and diversify the economy", the analysts point out.