"We expect Angola's oil production to increase by 4 percent, from 1.13 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.18 million barrels per day in 2024, and then rise slightly to 1.19 million barrels per day in 2025," write analysts from the African department of this British consultancy.
The analysts note that despite being slightly lower in August, "cumulative production in the first eight months of the year is considerably higher than in the same period in 2023, and the expected launch of a new project later this year could provide an additional boost, offsetting any production losses due to unexpected well maintenance operations."
Angola's oil production in August was 1.20 million barrels per day, slightly below the 1.22 million barrels pumped daily in July, according to data from the International Energy Agency.
In both cases, production is above the government's target of 1.18 million barrels.
In the commentary, Oxford Economics also writes that after extensive maintenance operations in the first quarter of last year, which caused a drop in production, "Angola has been recovering steadily, which helps economic growth, which is expected to improve this year to 2.9 percent".
The increase in production this year follows Angola's exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of 2023, due to a disagreement over the production limit that this entity intended to impose on Angola.
"We feel that at this time Angola has nothing to gain by remaining in the organization and, in defense of its interests, it has decided to leave," said Minister Diamantino Pedro Azevedo, when announcing the decision on December 21, 2023.
"This was not a decision taken lightly. We have been very active in the organization over the last six years, and this is the time it has come because our role in the organization was not relevant," he explained at the time.
OPEC+ presented a target of 1.11 million barrels per day, while Angola wants to produce an additional 70 thousand barrels.
According to the official, during the December 2023 meeting of OPEC and allied producers, Angola reaffirmed its position, but contrary to the usual unanimity, OPEC decided on a quota that Angola does not agree with, and the result was, therefore, its exit from the organization.
