"The weak campaign by both the MPLA and the opposition led by the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) may have boosted a low adherence that would favor the opposition, lowering the MPLA vote percentage, which should remain below 60 percent", reads a commentary on the Angolan elections.
"The MPLA will retain power, but lose its two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, depriving it of its ability to amend the Constitution", which will, analysts anticipate, "increase the opposition's supervisory role and may force the increased parliamentary cooperation between the MPLA and UNITA".
In the commentary on the elections, written even before the provisional results of the vote were known, Eurasia points to a "continuity of policies" in the event of a victory for the MPLA, which would give João Lourenço a new term as President.
"The President is committed to economic reform and would continue his agenda marked by improving macroeconomic stability, fiscal consolidation, privatization and decentralization efforts, probably focusing on diversifying the economy beyond oil and developing agriculture and minerals, while addressing the decline in oil production", reads the analysis, to which Lusa had access.
For Eurasia, "concerns about electoral fraud will continue to dominate this period, increasing the likelihood that the opposition will contest the outcome of the polls", they add.
The next government, regardless of who wins Wednesday's elections, will face "high unemployment, rampant inflation, the high cost of living, poverty, the increase in strikes and protests, the demands for democratization and the humanitarian crisis in the south of the country", conclude the analysts.
Angola's fifth general election perpetuated the dispute between the country's two main parties, the MPLA and UNITA, which sought to win a majority of the 220 seats in the National Assembly.
According to the National Electoral Commission (CNE), the first provisional results indicate that the MPLA won the elections with 60.65 percent, followed by UNITA, with 33.85 percent, when 33.16 percent of the total votes cast.
For its part, UNITA contradicts these CNE figures and claims victory in the scrutiny.
