"Our expectation for 2021 is of sustained growth in non-oil economic activity, gradually beginning to see some effects of economic diversification," write the analysts, in a note on the latest figures from the National Institute of Statistics, in which they report a drop of 3.4 percent in the first quarter compared to the same quarter of 2020, and a rise of 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter.
"In view of the forecasts of the Government and the IMF, we are cautiously more optimistic," point out the analysts in the note sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, in which they estimate a GDP growth between 2 and 3 percent already this year.
In the document, the analysts explain that the fall in GDP is caused by "the variation in the volume of crude produced, which, by accounting effect, leads to a drop in measured economic activity, despite the very significant increase in revenue that should occur this year, due to higher prices.
This method, they explain, "implies that despite a clear increase in oil revenues this year due to the huge increase in price (for companies, in tax terms, and in the availability of foreign exchange), the accounting for GDP effects will always be negative because the volume, in barrels, of exported crude is falling.
Even so, they warn, the improvement in the growth of the Angolan economy will only reach the population if the effect is prolonged over time.
"However, it must be reaffirmed that sustained growth will have an effect on poverty and economic difficulties of the population only if it remains for several quarters," they state, concluding: "It is an auspicious beginning, but still a beginning.
According to the Quarterly National Accounts, released this week by Angola's National Institute of Statistics, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 3.4 percent, having registered an improvement of 0.2 percent compared to the last quarter of last year.
"The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in chained volume for the first quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted, recorded a fall of 3.4 percent, and compared to the previous quarter (fourth quarter of 2020) recorded a growth of 0.2 percent," reads the document available on the INE website.
According to the report, "the performance of economic activities in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2020, in terms of negative change, is mainly attributed to the activities of Construction (-31.5 percent), Oil Extraction and Refining (-18.6 percent); Transport and Storage (-15.6), Financial Intermediation Services (-9.9) and Post and Telecommunications (-5.8 percent)."
The government expects the country's economy to emerge this year from the recession it has faced since 2016, posting a slight growth of 0.1 percent, while the International Monetary Fund anticipates a 0.4 percent recovery.
