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Economy

Mo Ibrahim Foundation: moratoria saved Angola from default

Angola evitou uma situação de incumprimento graças às moratórias internacionais sobre os pagamentos da dívida e poderá demorar mais tempo a recuperar economicamente do que outros países africanos, segundo um relatório publicado pela Fundação Mo Ibrahim.

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According to the authors of the document, Angola could have saved three billion dollars between May 2020 and June 2021 thanks to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) promoted by the G20, which guarantees a moratorium on debt payments from the most indebted countries to the most developed countries and multilateral financial institutions by December 2021.

"Debt defaults have temporarily saved Angola from default, while Chad, Republic of Congo, Mauritania and Sudan are all under severe financial pressure," reports the study "Covid-19 in Africa, a year later: impact and prospects ".

Thirty-eight of the 54 African countries are eligible to use the DSSI, but seven opted out because they feared that participation would result in a lower public debt rating and make it difficult to access new financing on non-preferential terms.

Zambia was the first and so far only African country to default during the covid-19 pandemic in November 2020, and in April of this year Tunisia entered into negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to initiate a new program of financial aid.

This scenario reflects the impact of the pandemic crisis on the continent, which led to a downward revision of economic growth prospects until 2024, says the study.

In 2021 Africa's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow 4.5 percent, instead of the 6 percent projected before the pandemic, an improvement from the 1.9 percent contraction in 2020, according to data Foundation based on IMF estimates.

"All countries except the Comoros Islands are expected to return to growth in 2021 and most of the continent is expected to see GDP recover to pre-pandemic (2019) levels by the end of the same year," the report reads.

However, disparities exist across the continent, and eight countries, including Angola, Mauritius, Seychelles and South Africa, could take between three to six years for GDP to return to pre-pandemic levels, while in Algeria, Libya and Zambia, recovery it may take seven or more years.

The study, which provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the covid-19 pandemic from the perspectives of health, society, politics and economics, stresses that the covid-19 [pandemic] has exacerbated problems facing the continent, including unemployment, which is expected to reach a maximum in the last decade.

"Containment and travel bans across the world have hit important sectors. As a result, employment prospects for young people have further declined, millions have fallen into poverty, food insecurity has soared and inequalities have increased," he says.

The report "Covid-19 in Africa, a year later: impact and perspectives" was published on the eve of the start of the Ibrahim Governance Weekend 2021, promoted by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, which will take place in digital format between Thursday and Saturday.

Entrepreneur Mo Ibrahim, founder and president of the Foundation that bears his name, argues in the introduction that "the recovery [from the pandemic] offers an opportunity for Africa to build a new growth model that is more sustainable and resilient."

Among the speakers at the Forum are, among others, the Director General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the Commission of the African Union, Moussa Faki Mahamat, the director of the African Union Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), John Nkengasong, and the President of the Council of Europe, Charles Michel.

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