For 2023, the non-oil economy should grow in a similar way to 2022, between 3.8 and 4.3 percent, while the oil economy should record a significant drop between 6.1 and 6.6 percent, highlights BFA in a information to which Lusa had access.
"Thus, the economy as a whole should grow between 1 and 1.5 percent", in 2023, according to forecasts by the study office, more pessimistic than those of the Angolan government (3.3 percent), World Bank (2.6 percent) and the International Monetary Fund (3.5 percent).
BFA also highlights the 5 percent contraction of the oil economy in the fourth quarter of 2021, interrupting a sequence of three consecutive quarters of growth.
The performance of the non-oil economy was quite positive (5.2 percent compared to the previous quarter and 4.4 percent year-on-year), as all sectors grew.
"Looking at 2022 as a whole, the Angolan economy still shows a general level of activity that is 1.6 percent below 2019, a change prior to the pandemic", indicates the BFA note sent to Lusa, noting, however, that the non-oil economy shows "relevant growth" even over this period, standing 5.4 percent above 2019 levels.
Contributing to the increase in non-oil activity were mainly the sectors of commerce, construction, transport and agriculture.
The diamonds and minerals sector hardly contributed to the evolution of economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2022, highlighting the "quite volatile behavior" of the sector in the last six quarters, but should grow more in the first quarter of 2023, analysts estimate of the BFA.
On the other hand, the oil sector interrupted the growth cycle of the last three quarters and contracted 5 percent, as a result of the decline in production and the stoppage for maintenance of the Dália oil field, in Block 17, the largest in Angola.
In view of the fall in production and taking into account that no new large investment projects are foreseen this year, BFA anticipates a return to falls of around 6 to 8 percent in 2023, with the fall in export revenues signaling a future pressure on the foreign exchange market.
"For now, data from OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) show that in the first quarter of 2023 oil production stood at around 1.07 million barrels day (mbd), making a similar contraction of 7.2 percent; on the other hand, data on oil exports indicate a year-on-year drop of 6.6 percent. That is, the Oil GDP may have fallen by a similar magnitude in the first quarter of 2023", says the information sheet.
On the other hand, non-oil economic activity should continue to grow in 2023 and inflation should maintain its decelerating path, estimated to fluctuate around 0.8-0.9 percent in the coming months.
Year-on-year inflation is expected to decline very gradually to a low of around 10 percent somewhere in the middle of the year, supporting "more easing of monetary policy" and lower interest rates.
Economic activity is expected to accelerate again to an average pace of around 3 to 5 percent in the period between 2024-2025, indicates the document.
