"We predict that Angola's real GDP will accelerate from an estimated 0.6 percent in 2021 to 3.8 percent in 2022, above the Bloomberg analysts' consensus forecast, which points to 2.2 percent in 2022" and better than the consultancy's January forecast, which predicted an expansion of 2.7 percent, reads a note sent to investors.
In the review of the forecast, to which Lusa had access, analysts of this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings write that "the price of oil will rise from an average of 71 dollars per barrel, in 2021, to 100 dollars this year, which will be an incentive for companies to increase oil production, which is expected to grow 3.5 percent this year".
As oil represents 85.4 percent of Angola's exports, the price rise will be positive for public accounts, which will also be helped "by the strengthening of the kwanza in a context of improving trade conditions and reducing inflation by 25.7 percent in 2021 to 20 percent this year".
This, they conclude, "will ease the pressure on consumers' purchasing power and support a recovery in domestic demand after five consecutive years of recession."
