Ver Angola

Economy

IMF lowers Angola's growth from 3.2 percent to 0.4 percent this year

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised slightly upward its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa, from 3.2 percent to 3.4 percent, and lowered Angola's growth from 3.2 percent to 0.4 percent this year.

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According to the World Economic Outlook, released Tuesday at the start of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, this African region is expected to grow 3.4 percent this year and 4 percent in 2022, which shows a slight improvement over the 3.2 percent forecast in January's update and the 3.1 percent predicted in October.

"The pandemic will continue to exert a heavy burden on sub-Saharan Africa, especially, for example, for Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa," reads the Fund's main report on the world economy, released twice a year, in April and in October.

"Following the region's largest contraction ever, with a 1.9 percent decline in 2020, growth is expected to bounce back to 3.4 percent in 2021, significantly lower than the trend anticipated before the pandemic," it further points out in the report, which warns that tourism-dependent economies are likely to be the most affected.

The World Economic Outlook does not present the macroeconomic data for all sub-Saharan African countries, as this will happen in the report dedicated to the region, launched next week, pointing out only the growth perspective for African countries.

Thus, Angola should recover from last year's 4 percent recession and grow 0.4 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2022, below the region's average, but still better than Equatorial Guinea, which after a 4 percent recession estimated for this year, should grow almost 6 percent in 2022, then return to negative growth in the following years.

All the other countries are expected to recover this year from last year's negative growth, most notably Cape Verde, which saw wealth contract by a historic 14 percent in 2020, but will already grow by almost 6 percent this year.

For gross public debt, the only figures already released by the IMF focus on Angola, which should see its ratio over GDP fall from 127.1 percent to 110.7 percent this year and 99.6 percent in 2022, and Mozambique, which should see the ratio grow from 122.2 percent in 2020 to 125.3 percent this year and 126.4 percent in 2022.

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