"It is certainly something that helps, but Angola is at a CCC rating level and that indicates a rather difficult economic and fiscal situation, where we are concerned mainly with the large level of debt, which at the end of this year is expected to reach 126.4 percent of GDP, and even if it goes down taking into account the evolution of oil prices, the debt remains at an extremely high level," said Jan Friederich.
Speaking to Lusa via videoconference from Hong Kong, Fitch Ratings' Middle East and Africa director stressed that "an allocation of 1 percent of GDP is not that significant, but it certainly helps to deal with immediate financing pressures, but in the long run it is not a panacea," he added.
Fitch Ratings has published a report where it points out that in a list of the 20 countries that will benefit most from the new Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation, and which includes Angola and Mozambique, the country that benefits most in terms of GDP is Zambia, but still influences the rating model by only 0.1 point, and it takes a full point to influence the rating.
"We do not foresee a significant impact on ratings due to the allocation," reads the report sent to investors, to which Lusa had access, and in which it is pointed out that Angola should receive US$777.7 million taking into account the 0.16 percent quota it has in the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF is due to approve in the Spring Meetings in April, a new allocation of US$500 billion that will allow Portuguese-speaking African Countries to receive almost US$1.3 billion based on their quota, which may be increased if the more developed countries accept the proposal to lend part of the amount they will receive to countries with more budgetary needs.
Asked about Angola's economic evolution, Jan Friederich said that it is possible to see an improvement in economic growth compared to forecasts, but warned that the IMF scenario for recovery is too optimistic.
"In Angola we can expect the economy to grow very suddenly, and interestingly the IMF is quite optimistic about the substantial pace of debt reduction over the next few years, to below 70 percent, but it is too early to see how that can be a credible scenario, and in any case, looking at the level of debt and the DES allocation, the level is very large," the analyst added.
Fitch Ratings forecasts 1 percent growth in Angola this year and an acceleration to 3 percent in 2022, which could be improved in light of oil price developments, which are almost double what was forecast in the country's Budget.
"I could see the forecast being improved slightly because of the recovery in the oil price, which improves liquidity, and the liquidity situation has been a major constraint to growth in recent years," the analyst concluded.
