"We have just revised our forecast for the growth of Angola's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 2.7 percent this year," compared to the 1.2 percent that Moody's predicted in September last year, said Aurelien Mali.
"The recovery is sustained by the fact that the price of oil has been rising since the lowest level in 2020, forecasting an average price of $ 50 per barrel this year, which means that if it is met and production remains stable at 1.2 or 1.3 million barrels per day, taking into account the 39 dollars foreseen in the budget, and if it is well implemented, spatially in capital expenditures, this will support economic growth ", said the analyst in an interview with Lusa, made through video conference from Dubai.
"The additional revenue that the Angolan Government will receive taking into account the evolution of the price of oil in relation to the price foreseen in the Budget can improve public accounts, allowing to clear arrears or support international reserves", pointed out the analyst.
In 2020, he said, Net International Reserves were slightly above US $ 8 billion, "slightly above what was agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), due to the support of international financial institutions, repatriation of part of the Sovereign Fund, loan an additional $ 750 million from the IMF and, most importantly, the restructuring of the debt of a Chinese creditor, which was worth $ 2.4 billion last year, and is expected to benefit from an additional $ 2.5 billion this year " .
This year, he continued, the situation looks even better, since "reserves may rise for the first time in a long time, mainly with the high maintenance of oil prices, but on the other hand the macroeconomic instability will remain because inflation it is very high, with a great depreciation of the kwanza in the last three years ", he warns.
Even so, the analyst is optimistic: "Inflation should start to fall at the end of this year and the stabilization of the exchange rate could lead to a very significant drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio," said Aurelien Mali.
Moody's downgraded Angola's rating in September for the second time in 2020, sinking it further into non-investment territory, and forecasts that the economy fell 4.2 percent last year.
It also predicts that the country had a public debt equivalent to 119.1 percent of GDP last year, dropping to 100 percent this year and 89.6 percent in 2022.
