"We anticipate that Angola will be the economy that suffers the most from the Covid-19 shock," reads a note on the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak in sub-Saharan Africa, which increases the recession forecast from 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent this year.
In a note sent to investors, and to which Lusa has had access, Capital Economics writes that "the fall in commodity prices will damage trade in African economies even if prices rise a little in the second half of the year".
Oil, they estimate, will be the most affected raw material, and should fall 35 percent this year, which will be "painful" for the main producers, such as Nigeria and Angola, but also smaller ones, such as Equatorial Guinea.
The fall of the kwanza, in turn, will be the most pronounced in African territory, according to forecasts by Capital Economics, which also warns that "the devaluation will focus attention on the high debt in foreign currency, which presents itself as one of the main economic risks.
