Ver Angola

Economy

Fitch: credit in Angola accelerates to 9 percent this year

Consultant Fitch Solutions estimates that the growth of bank loans in Angola will accelerate to 9 percent this year, after a 5.5 percent expansion in 2021, but is expected to slow to 8 percent next year.

:

"We expect loans to customers to grow 9 percent this year compared to the same period last year, up from 5.5 percent in 2021, due to greater consumer and business confidence," write analysts at this consultancy owned by the same owners of the rating agency Fitch Ratings.

In the commentary, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, Fitch Solutions says that "in 2023, the growth of bank loans is expected to decelerate to 8 percent compared to the previous year due to headwinds in the national oil sector", which will cause bank capital and profitability to weaken in 2023.

According to data from the National Bank of Angola (BNA), credit growth accelerated to 14.8 percent in September compared to the same month of the previous year, when in September 2021 it had risen by 0.5 percent compared to September. of 2020.

"This reflects the improvement in macroeconomic conditions, with GDP accelerating from 2.8 percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter of this year to 3.6 percent in the second quarter, and we anticipate further acceleration in the third and fourth quarters of this year," adds Fitch Solutions.

Even so, he points out, "credit growth next year will be above the historical average of 7.7 percent between 2012 and 2021, due to the fact that average annual inflation continues to slow down, to 14 percent in 2023, and the BNA is expected to maintain its monetary position, cutting rates by 200 basis points to 17 percent in 2023."

This, he concludes, should cause bank capital to weaken in 2023.

"The Angolan banking sector has a high exposure to foreign currency, which between 2011 and 2021 represented 33.6 percent of total assets; as we expect the kwanza to depreciate by 7.3 percent next year, to 499 kwanzas per dollar due to the fall in the price of oil, the capital of banks will be affected", but will maintain minimum solvency levels, above 10 percent, he considers.

Permita anúncios no nosso site

×

Parece que está a utilizar um bloqueador de anúncios
Utilizamos a publicidade para podermos oferecer-lhe notícias diariamente.