According to Bloomberg, the poll of nine economists was taken between November 12 and 17, and shows that the economy will continue to experience negative growth this year, then expanding 2.5 percent in 2022.
The 2022 growth forecast was also revised downwards, as in the previous poll economists estimated growth of 2.9 percent.
Regarding the evolution of inflation, the value was revised slightly higher, from 24.3 percent to 25.2 percent this year, and according to the average forecast of these analysts, prices should rise 20 percent next year, which represents an upward revision compared to the 16.4 percent estimated previously.
Analysts' forecast contrasts with the Angolan government's expectation, but it is close to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which also revised the forecast to anticipate a negative growth of 0.7 percent.
The Government forecasts a return to positive growth this year, foreseeing a slight economic expansion of 0.2 percent, before accelerating growth to 2.4 percent in 2022, according to the State Budget.
According to the proposal approved by the National Assembly on November 9, the country is expected to return to positive growth this year, after five consecutive years of economic recession, triggered by the drop in oil prices in 2016, and, more recently, by the consequences of the covid-19 pandemic.
In the document, the Ministry of Finance predicts that in 2022 the economy will grow 2.4 percent in 2022 and expects a sharp decline in the ratio of public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which rose in recent years due, in part, to to the devaluation of the kwanza.
With the national currency appreciating nearly 10 percent from January to September this year, the debt ratio is expected to drop to around 82 percent by the end of this year, allowing Angola to keep its intention of returning to international debt markets. in 2022, as announced by the finance minister last week.
The "expansionist policy" assumed by the Government, however, maintains the concern with the sustainability of public finances, since practically half of the revenues are destined to guarantee the payment of interest on the debt next year, which represent 12 percent of GDP.
The exit from the recession this year, if confirmed, will be sustained by the growth of the non-oil economy, which is expected to expand by 5.2 percent, as the oil economy is expected to remain negative, reducing by 10, 6 percent, according to Government forecasts.
