"The expectation is to exit the recession in 2022 and possible return in 2023 if there is no substantial investment in the oil sector because of the end of the useful life of some of the wells," Fáusio Mussa told the Lusa agency, following the launch of the report on African economies, released this Thursday.
"Gross Domestic Product contracted 8.8 percent in the second quarter of 2020, which is more than our expectation of 5.7 percent, so we now expect a 5.2 percent recession in 2020, and we think that the economy will continue to contract in 2021 ", reads the document, which predicts that the oil sector will continue to fall.
"The oil sector continues to experience a decline in production and the recovery of the non-oil economy is likely to be insufficient to lift the economy," the report added.
Looking at the figures in the State Budget proposal for next year, the Standard Bank report said that "GDP for oil and gas will contract 6.2 percent and the non-oil economy is expected to grow 2.2 percent. , which means that the total GDP will have a growth of 0 percent in 2021, which compares with a contraction of 2.1 percent predicted by the Government for this year ".
For Fáusio Mussa, who signs the Standard Bank's note on Angola, the expected cut of the deficit from 4 percent this year to 2.2 percent in 2021 implies "the replacement of oil revenues by tax increases outside the oil sector" .
In this sense, Mussa concluded that, "given the magnitude of the multiple shocks Angola is facing, taxpayers are likely to face more pain".
