"A slight increase in oil production and exports will push the economy out of recession in 2021," reads an analysis by Fitch Solutions of the Angolan economy, in which it writes that "GDP will return to positive ground in 2021, with 1.7 percent and 2.5 percent in 2022.
These figures are below the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) estimate, which forecasts an average of 3.1 per cent over the next two years, notes Fitch Solutions, after five years of negative GDP growth.
In the note sent to clients that Lusa had access to, the analysts of this consultancy held by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings write that "despite the production cuts imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries having been extended until April 2022, the mandatory reductions for Angola will fall from 277 thousand barrels per day in the second half to 209 thousand barrels by the end of the period".
Thus, they add, an increase in production is expected in the next two years, with an average growth of 4.7 percent, adding 0.4 percentage points to the growth of the economy in the next two years.
In that period, domestic demand is also expected to increase slightly, as a result of the normalisation of economic conditions and the assumption that the government will not impose further containment measures, analysts say, anticipating inflation of 18 percent in 2021 and 14.2 percent in 2022.
The improvement in economic conditions and the slowdown in the spread of the covid-19 pandemic should translate into a priority for public spending, says Fitch Solutions.
"The government will probably focus on public spending when the worst of covid-19 passes, resuming fiscal consolidation in line with the IMF aid program," so "spending cuts are likely, especially in 2021, which will cause public spending to fall by 1.2 percent next year," conclude the analysts.
The African continent has recorded another 191 deaths due to covid-19 in the last 24 hours, increasing to 43,612 the total number of deaths by the new coronavirus, which has already infected 1,813,065 people in the region, according to official data.
According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the African Union (Africa CDC), in the 55 member states of the organization there have been another 10,714 cases of covid-19 in the last 24 hours. The number of recovered is now 1,484,042, 8145 more than the day before.
