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Economy

IMF forecasts: Portuguese-speakers resume growth, only Angola is in the “red”

All African Portuguese-speaking countries (PALOP) will see their economies grow again this year, with the exception of Angola, which remains in recession, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

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According to the World Economic Forecasts, released as part of the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, taking place this week, Angola's negative growth, estimated at 0.7 percent this year, is the only contraction in Portuguese-speaking economies, which will grow by an average of 2.5 percent.

Equatorial Guinea, with 4.1 percent, is the Portuguese-speaking economy that will register the strongest recovery, although the IMF estimates that in 2022 it will return to contractions, while Cape Verde, with a growth of 4 percent, is the one that leaves better than last year's historic drop of almost 15 percent due to the effects of the pandemic.

Guinea-Bissau, with 3.3 percent, Mozambique, which will grow 2.5 percent, and São Tomé and Príncipe, with 2.1 percent, complete the range of Portuguese-speaking economies in recovery, the latter being the the only one that managed to maintain growth during the pandemic.

The IMF says São Tomé and Príncipe grew 3 percent last year, unlike all Portuguese-speaking economies, and estimates an expansion of 2.1 percent and 2.9 percent for this and next year.

Sub-Saharan Africa saw the growth estimate improved by 0.3 points this year and also worsened by 0.3 points from the July forecast update, meaning the recovery will be slower than initially forecast.

If the forecasts are confirmed, this region, which encompasses the majority of Portuguese-speaking countries, should accelerate in 2022, compared to the growth of 2019, a year in which it registered an expansion of 3.1 percent, followed by a recession of .17 per cent. cent last year because of the effects of the covid-19 pandemic.

The IMF lowered its forecasts for world economic growth in 2021 by a tenth, dropping them to 5.9 percent, when it forecast 6.0 percent in July, was released.

For 2022, the July forecast remains unchanged, but compared to the April forecasts it represents an increase of 0.9 percentage points (0.1 as compared to 2021).

"Global recovery continues, but momentum has weakened, crippled by the pandemic. Fueled by the Delta variant, the number of deaths recorded by covid-19 has grown by about five million and health risks abound, holding back a complete return to normalcy." one reads in the text of the World Economic Forecasts.

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