The kwanza has already depreciated 17.4 per cent against the dollar and 21.4 per cent against the euro since the beginning of the year, influenced by the lower availability of currencies in the foreign exchange market, thus affecting the differential between the official and informal exchange rates of the main currencies.
In a round carried out this Wednesday by Lusa in different points of the city of Luanda, the exchange rate of the euro, in the informal market, varied between 895 kwanzas and 900 kwanzas for the purchase, while for the sale the price was fixed at 910 kwanzas.
For the dollar, the exchange rate consulted at Mutamba, São Paulo and Martyrs of Kifangondo varied between 790 kwanzas and 800 kwanzas for the purchase and 800 kwanzas and 810 kwanzas for the sale.
Lusa questioned the kínguilas (banknote sellers) about the reason for the high prices, being the scarcity of currency in the market the main justification.
In statements to Lusa, Precioso Domingos said that the BNA has no way, at this time, of staving off the situation by the means it has always used, but at different times from what is happening today.
According to Precioso Domingos, the BNA's intervention has always been artificial, because the natural one stems from the robustness of the economy itself, if it could diversify its exports.
"As this process of diversifying exports does not yet exist, then the only capacity for the BNA to control this would have to be by increasing the sale of dollars or euros in the market, but this is limited at the moment, because of what is happening in the oil sector market" he explained.
Precioso Domingos stressed that in Angola, the covid-19 pandemic has affected the oil sector more than the non-oil sector, as reflected by the decrease in the State's total revenues from the initial budget compared to the revised budget.
"The drop in oil revenues was abrupt. So the BNA is unable to do this. If it tries, what will happen is that it will let slip an important assessment criterion, imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the scope of the agreement, which is to maintain the levels of international reserves, in the order of at least 10 billion dollars", he said.
If the central bank increases the pace of foreign exchange sales, he noted, what will occur "is this defined level escape" taking the reserves "to very low levels.
"We are going to experience a false moment of currency stabilization, but then the problem will arise again and if the problem arises in a context like this, where the oil market has not yet shown signs of recovery, in terms of prices and quantities, then it will be worse, we will go through a worse situation than the one we are already experiencing", he considered.
For the time being, the problem is endless, "unless the price of oil surprises. Otherwise it won't".
According to Precioso Domingos, it is difficult at this time for the BNA to distinguish the demand for currency for transaction purposes, because people are not travelling and have less need of seeking currency.
Despite the suspension of travel due to the pandemic, the economist continued, "it seems that there is a demand that is fuelling the very high prices of foreign currency, even in the informal market.
"People still continue to satisfy the informal market, despite appearing with prices of 900 kwanzas for the euro and 800 for the dollar. This means that people have a belief that this is going to be even worse and that is why they are buying dollars or euros to hoard," he predicted, indicating that the BNA "should only let the market flow naturally.
"It's time for the BNA to exercise free exchange, and then make sure that the banks are complying with what they have to do," he said.
According to Oxford Economics, the kwanza is expected to depreciate by more than 50 percent in 2020 compared to last year's figure, which has pushed inflation to its highest level since December 2017.
