"In our opinion, interest rates will remain unchanged for the rest of the year; we expect inflation to gradually ease to less than 23 percent at the end of 2024 compared to the same period last year", wrote analysts from the African department of this British consultancy in a comment on the decision, on Friday, to maintain the reference interest rate at 19.5 percent.
Oxford Economics admits that it expected an increase of 0.5 percentage points, below the average of analysts consulted by Bloomberg, who predicted a rise of 0.75 percentage points, estimating "that the central bank needed stronger signs of a slowdown in inflation to keep the rate unchanged".
The BNA Monetary Policy Committee decided to maintain the interest rate at 19.5 percent, given the slowdown in price growth in the economy, resulting from the relative improvement in the supply of essential consumer goods and the control of liquidity.
At the press conference to present the decision, Governor Tiago Dias highlighted that the interest rate on the permanent liquidity-providing facility was also maintained, at 20.5 percent, and the interest rate on the permanent liquidity absorption facility, by 18.5 percent.
If there is no change in prices, the prospect is that monthly inflation rates will continue to fall, he stated, pointing out: "This means that we will be at a level of monthly inflation rates lower than the monthly inflation rates observed in the same period last year."
Currently, the year-on-year inflation rate is at 30 percent, "well above" the inflation target of around 23 percent, acknowledged the governor, highlighting, however, that "a slowdown in terms of monthly inflation rates has already been noted , inflation continues to rise, but at a less sustained pace than what we had been observing until April".
For Oxford Economics, despite the BNA having already raised the policy rate by 1.5 percentage points this year, "the real interest rate fell further into negative territory", due to the difference between the rate practiced in banks and the rate real, made outside the banking system, in the informal economy.