"The covid-19 pandemic and the dramatic reduction in oil prices have undermined reform efforts, exacerbating the already fragile macroeconomic situation and limiting the prospects for a rapid economic recovery," reads the ADB's annual report on African economies in the Regional Economic Outlook supplement.
The document, which revises sharply the estimates presented at the end of January, forecasts a fall in Angola's GDP of between 3.1 per cent in the baseline scenario, which could go up to 5.3 per cent in the most serious scenario.
"The reduction in oil-related tax revenue, which represents around 60 percent of total revenue, will contribute to a budget deficit that may go from 4.4 percent of GDP to 9.7 percent," in the most pessimistic scenario.
In the document, which places Angola 43rd out of 54 African countries and 170th out of 195 countries worldwide in terms of health system preparation (Global Health Security Index), AfDB analysts warned that "the gloomy growth prospects, in a context where the country is entering its fifth year of recession, will increase social challenges in a country with 32 percent unemployment.
In the original forecasts, presented at the end of January, the ADB predicted growth of 2.8 percent and inflation of 11.2 percent, with a budget surplus of 0.1 percent, which has now declined to 4.4 percent.
