"We anticipate that the exchange rate of the kwanza against the dollar will, by the end of the year, cancel out some recent gains, to reach an average of 645.4 kwanzas per dollar in 2021, which compares with an average of 578.3 kwanzas per dollar in 2020", write the analysts, in a note on the evolution of the national currency.
In the comment, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, analysts of this African subsidiary of British Oxford Economics point out that "the risk of a strong depreciation in the currency remains high due to the uncertainty in the energy market caused by the covid- 19".
Furthermore, they add, "despite the recovery in risk sentiment, which has alleviated short-term risks, the kwanza is likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to the heavy dependence of the oil sector, which is facing a decline in production due to issues operational and lack of investment".
The Angolan currency appreciated 2.4 percent from the beginning of the year to June 10, improving the exchange rate to 642 kwanzas per dollar, in a period in which the price of oil increased by almost 46 percent, to 72.4 dollars per barrel due to strong Asian demand, pushing up the flow of dollars to Angola.
"This, together with the flow of reserves from the disbursement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during this period, supported the strengthening of the kwanza, which has devalued by 27 percent over the past year."
