"We think that the recent rise in commodity prices will lose steam in the coming months, with oil prices rising a bit, before dropping from 70 dollars at the end of this year to around 60 dollars at the end of next year," wrote analyst Virag Forizs.
In the analysis note, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the analyst said that in addition to the drop in oil prices, African exporters of raw materials will also be penalized by the fall in prices of agricultural products such as coffee and industrial metals, which should "record the largest drop in prices at the end of this year and next year.
According to this analyst's accounts, the recovery in oil prices since the historic low of 19 dollars in April last year has benefited major producers such as Nigeria and Angola.
"Exports from major producers such as Nigeria and Angola were worth 2 and 13 percent of GDP on an annualized basis, respectively, and Zambia's balance of payments improved with the sharp rise in copper prices," she pointed out, adding that the rise in commodity prices is also likely to have been one of the reasons for the appreciation of the South African currency.
The result, he concluded, "is that the terms of trade of most African nations will worsen from now on," placing Zambia and Angola as the countries most at risk of facing further balance of payments constraints.
"Commodity prices will move from headwinds to headwinds in the coming quarters, and that is another reason why we expect a weak recovery in sub-Saharan African economies, compounded by the problems of slow vaccine distribution, little fiscal space, and a continued decline in tourism," Capital Economics warns.
