As for Angola, the World Bank now predicts that the second largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa will grow by just 2.7 percent, when in October 2024 it predicted an expansion of 2.9 percent, and is also making a strong review of inflation, whose forecast six months ago pointed to 16.1 percent, and now it is 25 percent, being one of the 14 countries that among the 47 in the region have double-digit inflation.
In fact, Angola, along with Nigeria and South Africa, represents a drag on the region's growth, says the World Bank, pointing out that without these three countries, "the region's growth should increase from four percent in 2024 to 4.5 percent this year, accelerating further to 5.6 percent in 2026 and 2027".
Growth in these three major economies is expected to accelerate from 2.5 percent in 2024 to 2.9 percent this year, and remain at 3.1 percent over the next two years, and still below that recorded between 2000 and 2019, when the average was 4.4 percent per year.
According to a comparison made by Lusa between the forecasts for 2025 in October last year and those made now for this year, only Cape Verde and Equatorial Guinea have significantly improved their economic growth estimates, but Equatorial Guinea is still in recession, which is expected to be 3.1 percent in 2025, compared with the forecast of a 4.4 percent drop made in October last year.
In the report, the World Bank also revised Mozambique's economic growth, following the post-election crisis, from four percent to three percent this year, worsening inflation from 2.8 percent to 5.5 percent, and improved the forecast for Cape Verde, which is expected to grow by 5.9 percent this year, one percentage point more than the forecast made in October last year.
Guinea-Bissau is expected to register an expansion of 5.1 percent, practically the same as the five percent forecast made in October, and São Tomé and Príncipe has a slight downward revision, from 3.3 percent to 3.1 percent.
YEAR 2025..................GDP.......INFLATION......PUBLIC DEBT
ANGOLA........................2.7..........25.0....................72.2
CABO VERDE.................5.9..........1.8......................104.6
GUINEA-BISSAU............5.1...........3.0......................80.5
EQUATORIAL GUINEA.....-3.1..........2.9......................31.5
MOZAMBIQUE...............3.0...........5.5.......................96.8
SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE...3.1.......9.6......................40.3
SOURCE: Pulsar of Africa, World Bank, April 2025
YEAR 2025..................GDP.......INFLATION......DEBT PUBLIC
ANGOLA.......................2.9............16.1.................64.6
CABO VERDE................4.9.............2.0..................102.4
GUINEA-BISSAU...........5.0.............2.0...................74.7
EQUATORIAL GUINEA....-4.4............3.3...................34.3
MOZAMBIQUE...............4.0.............2.8...................98.7
SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE....3.3.......12.0.................38.7
SOURCE: Pulsar de África, World Bank, October 2024
Values in percentage compared to the previous year
