"Although rising oil prices improve Angola's public accounts, a strong deterioration in investor sentiment following an escalation in the conflict could result in potentially very unfavorable conditions for Angola," Virág Fórizs told Lusa.
Asked whether the evolution of the situation in Ukraine and the impact on international markets could prevent Angola from proceeding with the issuance of sovereign debt, scheduled for this month, the analyst said that if conditions worsen, "Angola could effectively be cut off from the international debt markets".
Even so, added Fórizs, the scenario "at this time" points to the possibility of Angola returning to the markets to issue debt.
"At this time, external financing conditions have not worsened as much for Angola compared to other African economies, such as Ghana, Zambia or Ethiopia, namely, so if conditions are maintained in the coming weeks, the issuance of debt securities should go forward", said the analyst, stressing that "it is a big 'if', due to the uncertainties surrounding the war in Ukraine".
The Government expects to return to the international financial markets this quarter, issuing around 1,800 billion kwanzas, which at today's exchange rate are equivalent to more than 3.2 billion euros and 3.6 billion dollars, although the presentation of the debt plan, available on the Finance website, convert it to 2.8 billion dollars.
According to the document, dated 8 February, Angola expects to raise US$10.74 million this year, of which up to US$2.8 billion are expected to be raised on international markets through the issuance of debt in foreign currency (Eurobond).
Angola is thus preparing to issue debt again for the first time since 2019, and after having planned to issue a new issuance at the end of last year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) financial assistance program is in effect.
The second oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa also plans to contract international loans and financing from commercial, bilateral and concessional entities in the amount of 2 billion kwanzas, equivalent to US$3.18 billion.
Domestically, Angola expects to borrow US$4.76 billion, divided into US$320 million in contractual debt and US$4.44 billion in securitized debt.
Lusa questioned the Ministry of Finance about the possibility of the evolution of the Russian invasion of Ukraine preventing, postponing or hindering the return to the markets, but no response so far.
Russia launched a military offensive in Ukraine early Thursday, with ground forces and bombing targets in several cities, which have killed more than 350 civilians, including children, according to Kiev. The UN reported more than 100,000 displaced people and more than 836,000 refugees in Poland, Hungary, Moldova and Romania.
