"Considering the performance so far, we are now reviewing our forecasts, updating the scenarios that we presented in January, anticipating that the GDP growth for 2021 will be positive, between 0.7 percent and 1.1 percent in the scenario base and in the most optimistic, making Angola come out of the five-year recession ", reads in the note sent to investors, and to which Lusa had access.
In the analysis of the economy, Standard Bank still admits the possibility of a recession this year in the most negative scenario, "which assumes lower numbers for oil production and prices, which would keep GDP in negative territory, with a contraction of 0.7 percent ".
For Standard Bank analysts led by Fáusio Mussa, "all scenarios point to positive growth next year, supported by budgetary savings, a better performance of the kwanza and a slowdown in inflation, which allows for an increase in demand in a pre- electoral".
Despite the conditions of the pandemic, the economic commentary also reads, "the outlook for the evolution of the Angolan currency is more positive, supported by the global recovery in oil prices, external debt relief measures, additional funding from the Fund International Monetary Policy "and various measures in monetary policy.
Standard Bank believes that "progress on structural reforms and the ambitious export program, as well as an improvement in reforms on the business environment, should decrease Angola's dependence on oil", but warns that "substantial investment in the non-oil economy , including public infrastructure, will be necessary for a sustained transition to a more diversified economy ".
The Angolan Government, in revising the budget for this year, estimates a growth close to zero, while the IMF, whose financing program ends at the end of the year, points to an economic expansion of 3.2 percent.
