"The impact of the decrease in Chinese imports will be felt differently in emerging markets, especially in the 17 countries whose exports to China are worth more than 4 percent of GDP", reads a report by Fitch Solutions, which points out that the Chinese slowdown to 5.4 percent this year will be particularly felt "in raw material exporters Angola, Republic of Congo and Mauritania, whose exports to China are worth more than 20 percent".
According to the analysis of this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings, "the Chinese slowdown to 5.4 percent will be strongly felt in the economic output of emerging markets globally due to the size and international integration of the economy Chinese".
In the report, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, Fitch Solutions says that the negative effects of the Chinese slowdown, whose rate of 5.4 percent is the lowest since 1991, will be felt mainly in Southeast Asia, in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa "due to lower demand for imports and lower prices for raw materials".
In the analysis, Fitch Solutions recalls that between 2000 and 2020, global prices of raw materials fell in all years in which the growth rate of Chinese imports was less than 3 percent, but stresses that the reduction in economic growth of China, from 8.1 percent in 2021 to 5.4 percent this year, will not be enough to reverse the upward trend in Foreign Direct Investment, but there will be a slowdown in growth.
"At the 2021 meeting of the China-Africa Investment Forum, China's investment pledges in Africa fell for the first time, and we think investment flows in the Silk Road project will fall from $740 billion between 2016 and 2020, to 550 billion dollars between 2021 and 2025", conclude the analysts.
China buys around 70 percent of Angola's oil exports and is also one of its main creditors.
According to a report on Angolan debt, published this week by the financial rating agency Standard & Poor's, Angola owes 13.6 billion dollars to the China Development Bank and 2.5 billion dollars to the Export and Imports from China, which, in addition to the 3 billion dollars owed to the Bank of Commerce and Industry of China, represent 29 percent of Angola's total external debt, that is, more than 19 billion dollars.
