Daniel Sapateiro was speaking to journalists on the sidelines of the conference on the Balance and Perspectives of Monetary Policy organized by the National Bank of Angola (BNA) and highlighted that the indicators presented were optimistic, namely growth of the Gross Domestic Product for 2025 of more than 3 percent and a inflation of 17.5 percent, when 2024 inflation was set at 27.5 percent.
However, the economist added that there are internal and external risks.
Among these, he recalled that the new President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, aims for increasingly rapid and strong industrialization and will encourage the production of shale oil and gas, which means lowering the price of gasoline and "flooding the world with oil".
The economist noted in this regard that the International Monetary Fund's forecasts are 69.76 dollars for the average oil price in 2025, while the State Budget assumes 70 dollars, admitting that price developments may not be positive.
"There is this risk with oil. And if oil is below 70 dollars, or even if it is between 70 dollars and 73 dollars, the issue of budget execution for 2025 is at risk here. Since October, November, I foresee that there will be a revised budget in Angola, to correct public revenue", highlighted the university professor.
In terms of internal risks, he pointed to the month of April as a "pre-Christmas", due to the implementation of the increases promised to public employees retroactive to January, with an impact on inflation levels, since liquidity in the market will "load heavily on search".
"People will have more money and will look for more goods and services. Inflation will feel this weight. If we increase fuel prices, the situation will get worse and we will have no economy or productivity", considered Daniel Sapateiro, warning of the impact the removal of fuel subsidies on the economy.
He defended, on the other hand, a policy of fixed and monitored prices in the health area, where inflation was significant, and the products that should be included in a basic basket should also be defined in order to create a "programming, in terms of price and control" of these products.