"Public opinion is frustrated with the high cost of living and this will continue to be one of the Government's main concerns", said Alex Vines, anticipating the main themes for Angola in 2024.
"Inflation in the country is expected to increase this year, possibly reaching more than 20 percent by the end of the year, and public debt will also return to be one of the main issues, after debt restructuring under a moratorium with the China, between 2021 and 2023, ends, leading Angola to double its debt payments this year, to around 14 billion dollars", said the director of Chatham House in statements to Lusa.
Even so, he stressed, the increase in oil prices and the gradual increase in oil production "will allow the country to fulfill its obligations, including the payment of its financial obligations on Eurobonds", that is, debt issues on the international market in foreign currency.
At a regional level, the country will continue to want to maintain a prominent position, wanting to be "increasingly assertive and dynamic in regional and continental organizations", namely in the Executive Council and the Peace and Security Commission of the African Union, but at a regional level Internationally, the principled position is equidistance.
"Angola will maintain its strongest non-alignment position in 2024, avoiding being trapped", predicted the analyst, referring mainly to the relationship between the African country and the United States and the European Union, on the one hand, and the Russia and China, on the other.
At continental level, Alex Vines highlighted that despite Africa being the second fastest growing region, after Asia, the 4 percent expansion "shows a less auspicious reality", highlighting several themes that will be among governments' priorities for this year.
"New conflicts, more coups d'état, the renewed conflict between Israel and Gaza and the war between Russia and Ukraine are contributing to preventing further growth across the continent", wrote the analyst, in an article about the main themes of 2024 for Africa, published in the South African newspaper Mail & Guardian.
The debate over African countries' public debt "will be prominent in 2024; high interest rates and a stronger dollar make it more expensive for African countries to service debt in dollars, which has led to more debt distress in several countries", added the analyst, noting that at the beginning of this year there are nine African countries in a situation of over-indebtedness, and a further 15 at high risk and 14 at moderate risk of falling into this situation.
In the article, Alex Vines also pointed out "the degradation of political instability on the continent, exemplified by the nine military coups since 2020, has increased the focus on the fragility of the constitutional rule of law" and highlighted that "countries that are already under military leadership are increasingly more unstable, with new coups being possible" in countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali or Niger.
For Alex Vines, the high number of elections on the continent, 17, did not dampen investor interest and the desire of African countries to open their economies to foreign investment.
"This year there will be a faster pace of trade forums", he highlighted, pointing to the second UK-Africa Investment Forum in May, the Italy-Africa conference in Rome, which chairs the G7, and the Korea-Africa summits in June, and India-Africa.
