Investigators consider that the MPLA is once again the protagonist of maneuvers to “maximize control” over the State

"The ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) has maintained continuous control over Angolan politics since 1975 and appears intent on ensuring that this continues to be the case after the 2022 legislative and presidential elections" , in which President João Lourenço is running for a second term, writes the American analysis institute, in a report released on Wednesday.

"The MPLA systematically pursues this objective through a series of maneuvers, maximizing its control over state structures", add the text's authors, Joseph Siegle and Candace Cook.

As an example, the report denounces the way in which the ruling party used "its profound influence over the courts" to condition the candidacies of its main rivals, Adalberto da Costa Júnior's UNITA, and PRA-JÁ Servir Angola, of Abel Chivukuvuku, creating "bureaucratic obstacles" to an "opposition, which has promised to form a unified coalition in the 2022 elections, the United Patriotic Front".

On the other hand, and "on the pretext of the pandemic", the MPLA has been postponing local elections for more than three years, "denying this dynamic to the opposition before the presidential elections".

Siegle and Cook denounce, on the other hand, the "curious formula" resulting from the composition of the National Electoral Commission (CNE), "stipulated to be proportional to the representation of the parties in the legislature, thus institutionalizing the bias and perpetuating the influence of the party in power ".

The researchers of the African Center for Strategic Studies, on the other hand, anticipate a threat to the fairness of the next elections, which results from the hypothesis that a constitutional review could determine that the counting of votes in future elections – including those of 2022 – be done at the same level. central rather than at the local level, "challenging best electoral practices and thus reducing oversight and accountability for counting votes".

The text also gives voice to "concerns" of civil society leaders "with the fact that Lourenço may use the constitutional revision as a justification for resetting the clock on the term limit".
"Although the MPLA's control over the institutional architecture may manage to maintain its stranglehold on Angolan politics, this is not a sustainable strategy for the country, in general", consider the researchers.

Angola has experienced six years of economic contraction, despite being abundant in natural resources, its external debt amounts to 40 billion dollars, half of which is in the hands of China, the prices of food and essential products have been rising and " the perception of corruption continues to be among the highest in the world", summarizes the report.

"The combination of political and economic frustrations led to a series of anti-government protests in Luanda, which were violently repressed by the Angolan security forces, which used live ammunition," according to the center.

"What could be one of the most consequential elections on the continent - signaling a commitment to genuine reform, more inclusive political participation, and respect for the rule of law - is likely little more than a formality," the US investigators conclude. .

The report also focuses on a number of elections in Africa, predicting that they will be "different from anything the continent has seen in recent years".