Fitch Solutions improves Angola's growth to 2.7 percent this year

"We expect Angola's real GDP to have accelerated from an estimated 0.6 percent in 2021 to 2.7 percent this year," reads a note on southern Africa's largest economies, in which growth is expected to 3.4 percent next year and a slowdown to 2.2 percent in 2024.

In a note from consultancy Fitch Solutions, owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings, analysts also estimate that oil exports will increase from 1.169 million barrels per day in 2021 to 1.221 million this year, falling again to 1.163 million barrels per day. barrels per day by 2023.

The analysis, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, focuses on the progress of reforms in a pre-election context, with the title "Progress in reforms remains slow in a context of electoral risks".

For Fitch Solutions, the strengthening of the opposition coalition will have an effect on the polls, with the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) remaining in power, but with fewer votes.

"While we believe the ruling party will win the next elections, its parliamentary majority will be reduced by the opposition coalition, which increases the risks of the government's reform efforts," writes Fitch Solutions.

Despite the GDP growth in 2021 and 2022, "the increase in domestic liquidity and the encouragement for private companies to buy public assets in the privatization program, we believe that this will not be enough to offset the limited interest of foreign companies", point out the analysts, who are firm in asserting that the goals of the privatization program will not be met.

"We anticipate that the government will not sell all the 195 assets it plans to sell by the end of the year", they say.

Regarding the withdrawal of fuel subsidies, which has seen successive postponements, Fitch Solutions says that the elections will force a further postponement of the withdrawal of subsidies, which cost about 3.5 billion dollars a year.

"The planned removal of fuel subsidies will continue to be postponed, on the eve of the August general elections; the majority of MPLA and opposition deputies are against the withdrawal of the subsidy, as this will increase the cost of living for families , and increase business costs", conclude the analysts.