"Due to the number of new oil projects that replace the maturing wells and the obligation to adhere to production cuts, we expect oil production to drop slightly from 1.27 million barrels per day in 2020 to 1.26 million barrels this year ", analysts write in a note commenting on GDP figures for the third quarter.
"Our forecast points to a 5.5 percent contraction in 2020, the worst since 1993, followed by a below-potential recovery of 2.2 percent this year," say analysts.
In the note sent to investors, and to which Lusa had access, these analysts at the African branch of Oxford Economics write that "oil exports, which dictate the direction of economic growth, went much lower in 2020 in a context of slowing production and falling oil prices ".
Although the price improved as early as May, after the April drop to its lowest level in 21 years, "the recovery remains uncertain due to fears of a second wave of covid-19 infections".
The Angolan economy recorded the first improvement in GDP since the beginning of the pandemic, with a 2.7 percent increase in the third quarter, but maintains a 5.8 percent drop compared to the same period, according to the INE.
"The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in chained volume of the third quarter of 2020 compared to the third quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted, decreased by 5.8 percent, and compared to the previous quarter, it grew by 2,7 percent ", reads in the note released by the National Statistics Institute on January 18th.
Despite the improvement compared to the previous quarter, the Angolan economy continues to contract, given that it registered a negative variation compared to the growth of the same quarter of 2019, and is going to contract by 5 percent in 2020 if the average remains at October to December, whose data are not yet available.
Looking at the average for the first three quarters of 2020, it appears that the country's economy fell 0.9 percent in the first three months of last year, and then further exacerbated the fall to 8.3 percent and 5.8 percent in the following two quarters, which keeps Angola in negative territory.
