“Normally, in December, inflation is always higher than the rest of the year, there is always additional pressure on prices. Now this trend, if it continues, is partly due to the devaluation of the kwanza. If the kwanza continues to devalue, it is natural for prices to rise”, said the economist to Lusa.
Commenting on the National Consumer Price Index (IPCN) for November, which fell to 15.24 percent year-on-year, according to the Angolan National Statistics Institute (INE), Rosado believes that the downward trend should continue until April or May 2023, while monthly inflation, although tenuous, should continue to increase”.
"It is noted that the decrease in monthly inflation had a resistance around 0.75 percent per month and from then on it started to rise, in November it was 0.82 percent", he stressed.
On the trend of rising prices of the main consumer goods in Angola, the economist recalled that the value of the kwanza is crucial, as the devaluation of the Angolan currency is reflected in the rise in prices of imported products.
“For this reason, I think that what will determine prices in the coming months is the value of the kwanza. If the kwanza continues to devalue, it is natural that there will be an acceleration of inflation, but in terms of monthly inflation, the counterpart should continue to fall”, he noted.
The National Consumer Price Index fell, in November, to 15.24 percent, year-on-year, the lowest value in almost seven years, according to INE data analyzed by Lusa.
The last time year-on-year inflation was below 16 percent was in January 2016, when it settled at 15.20 percent.
The 15.24 percent represents a decrease of 11.74 percentage points in relation to the inflation observed in the same period of the previous year and a deceleration of 1.44 percentage points in relation to the homologous variation of the previous month.
In the province of Luanda, the decline was even more significant, reaching 14.6 percent year-on-year, the lowest record since December 2015 (14.3 percent) and a decrease of 15.82 percentage points in relation to observed in the same period of the previous year.
In monthly terms, the IPCN recorded a variation of 0.82 percent between October and November 2022.
Last week, the governor of the National Bank of Angola (BNA), José de Lima Massano, anticipated that Angola would end the year with an inflation rate below 16 percent, predicting greater price stability in the economy for 2023.
