Ver Angola

Economy

Oxford Economics predicts continued decline in inflation to 12.7 percent at the end of 2023 in Angola

The consultancy Oxford Economics Africa considered this Tuesday that the drop in inflation in Angola will lead the central bank to cut the interest rate next year, when inflation slows down to 12.7 percent.

: Ampe Rogério/Lusa
Ampe Rogério/Lusa  

"Thanks to positive base effects, lower commodity prices and a slowdown in the growth rate of credit and monetary aggregates, we forecast that inflation will continue to decline to 12.7 percent at the end of next year; this lower inflation rate should sustain a cumulative cut of 400 basis points over the next year", write the analysts.

Commenting on the evolution of inflation in Angola, which dropped to 15.24 percent in November, the lowest figure in the last seven years, analysts from the African department of this British consultancy write that "in contrast to most other countries, the inflation has been on a downward trend for several months, mainly due to the strengthening of the local currency against its 12-month value and the general decline in food prices since May".

The National Consumer Price Index fell, in November, to 15.24 percent, year-on-year, the lowest value in almost seven years, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) analyzed by Lusa.

The last time year-on-year inflation was below 16 percent was in January 2016, when it settled at 15.20 percent.

The 15.24 percent represents a decrease of 11.74 percentage points in relation to the inflation observed in the same period of the previous year and a deceleration of 1.44 percentage points in relation to the homologous variation of the previous month.

In the province of Luanda, the decline was even more significant, reaching 14.6 percent year-on-year, the lowest record since December 2015 (14.3 percent) and a decrease of 15.82 percentage points in relation to observed in the same period of the previous year.

In monthly terms, the National Consumer Price Index (IPCN) registered a variation of 0.82 percent between October and November 2022.

"Comparing the monthly variations (October to November 2022) there is an acceleration of 0.04 percentage points, whereas, in year-on-year terms (November 2021 to November 2022), there is a deceleration in the current variation of 1.26 percentage points", stresses INE.

Health-related items recorded the greatest increase in prices, with a monthly variation of 1.84 percent. Also worthy of note are the rises seen in the following classes: Clothing and Footwear with 1.75 percent, Miscellaneous Goods and Services with 1.31 percent and Leisure, Recreation and Culture with 1.15 percent.

Last week, the governor of the National Bank of Angola (BNA), José de Lima Massano, anticipated that Angola would end the year with an inflation rate below 16 percent, predicting greater price stability in the economy for 2023.

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