Ver Angola

Banking and Insurance

Consultant Fitch downgrades bank credit in Angola to 2.5 percent this year

Consultant Fitch Solutions this Wednesday revised downwards the growth forecast for bank loans in Angola, now estimating an increase of 2.5 percent this year and 6.2 percent in 2022, favoring the private sector.

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"We expect that after a 2.4 percent contraction in 2020, bank lending to customers in Angola will grow 2.5 percent in 2021 and 6.2 percent in 2022, which is a downward revision compared to 4.5 percent and 8.2 percent, respectively, previously forecast", reads a commentary on the banking situation in Angola.

In the document, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, this consultant owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings write that "a stable kwanza for the rest of this year and under appreciation in 2022 will act as a credit growth limiter" .

In the note, Fitch Solutions also says it expects banks to "shift the focus from the public sector to the private sector in this and next year" and points out that the sector's profitability should improve in the coming quarters.

To support the updated forecast on the volume of loans, analysts point to a slowdown in growth from 7.9 percent in August to 1.3 percent in September, explained by "the greater stability of the kwanza, which is also responsible for the forecast below the 2012-2019 average of 9.2 percent, which will be above the estimate for this and next year."

The anticipated appreciation of the kwanza for the coming months, to 600 kwanza per dollar by the end of the year, influences the values ​​of loans in foreign currency, which are worth around a third of credit operations in Angola.

"We believe that a stable kwanza for the rest of the year and moderately appreciating to an average of 588 kwanza to the dollar in 2022 will continue to limit credit growth," analysts conclude.

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