According to the report released as part of the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, which are taking place this week in the North American capital, Angola's economic growth this year and next will be below not only the sub-Saharan African average, but also of the group of oil exporting countries.
While the region's economies will grow, on average, 3.6 percent and 4.2 percent this year and next, oil exporters are expected to record expansion of 2.7 percent and 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, above Angola, the second largest producer in sub-Saharan Africa, on a list of oil exporters that also includes Nigeria, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea, among others.
The report does not present a detailed analysis of African economies, as it refers to the world economy, but it still reveals some numbers about the macroeconomic scenario for all countries. Thus, it can also be seen that the Fund predicts that inflation in Angola will be 28.4 percent this year, falling to 21.3 percent next year, while the region's average will be 18.1 percent and 12.3 percent in 2024 and 2025.
Equatorial Guinea, like all other Portuguese-speaking African Countries (PALOP), is experiencing economic expansion this year, but it is the only one that is expected to be in recession in 2025, the year in which the IMF predicts that this economy will fall by 4.8 percent, unlike other Portuguese-speaking countries in Africa, which maintain or accelerate growth next year.
Cape Verde, in turn, is expected to register a slight slowdown in economic growth, falling from 5.1 percent last year to 4.7 percent this year and next.
In Guinea-Bissau, the outlook is for stability, with the country growing 5 percent this year and next, after recording an expansion of 5.2 percent in 2023.
In São Tomé and Príncipe, the Fund's forecasts point to an economic recovery, with the archipelago rising from 0.4 percent last year to 1.1 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2025, the year in that the financial adjustment program approved this week by the IMF technical staff should already be in force.
Mozambique, on the other hand, is expected to register a slowdown, from 5.4 percent last year to 4.3 percent this year and next.
Year 2024..................GDP.......Inflation
Angola........................2.4......28.4
Cape Verde..................4.7.......2.0
Guinea-Bissau...............5.0..........4.2
Equatorial Guinea..........5.8...........4.0
Mozambique.................4.3.......3.5
São Tomé and Príncipe...1,1.........17,1
Year 2025..................GDP.......Inflation
Angola.......................2.8.........21.3
Cape Verde................4.7..........2.0
Guinea-Bissau............5.0..........2.0
Equatorial Guinea......-4.8..........2.8
Mozambique..............4.3...........4.3
São Tomé and Príncipe..3,3........10,8
Percentage figures compared to the previous year
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2024
