"We have revised our forecast for the growth of Angola's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), from a contraction of 0.7 percent, to an expansion of 0.1 percent this year, after growth was greater than our expectations in the second quarter, showing stagnation", write the analysts.
In the note sent to investors, and to which Lusa had access, this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings write that they expect "a slight acceleration in growth to 0.6 percent in 2024 due to a better outlook for investment, but headwinds for consumption and exports will impede a stronger economic recovery".
Despite a 2.9 percent contraction in the oil sector and a 21.9 percent drop in the mining sector, non-extractive industries fared better, with expansions of 40 percent in the financial sector, 5 percent in telecommunications, 2.9 percent in commerce and 1.4 percent in construction, the growth in inflation will weigh on the non-oil economy in this second half, and the stabilization of oil production will weigh less negatively on growth for the year as a whole.
Investment, points out BMI Research, will be the main driver of growth next year: "We believe that investor interest in Angola's oil, gas and mines will continue to increase in the coming quarters, following the government's efforts to improve the regulatory environment", reads the analysis of the Angolan economy.
For BMI Research, the main doubts that could strongly influence these forecasts are the exchange rate and the oil sector.
"Although we expect the kwanza to depreciate only slightly in the last quarter of this year and in 2024, if the drop recorded in July resumes, this will exacerbate imported inflation and weigh more on families' purchasing power", warns BMI Research, concluding that "if domestic oil production and global crude prices increase or decrease compared to forecasts, a review of Angola's GDP growth estimate will be made."
