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Energy

World Bank: oil price remains low beyond 2021

The World Bank estimates that oil prices will remain below the average of recent years in 2021, when the price per barrel is expected to rise from 41 dollars in 2020 to 44 dollars.

: EPA
EPA  

"Oil prices should rise very gradually from current levels and reach an average of 44 dollars in 2021, rising from the estimated 41 dollars per barrel this year against a background of a slow recovery in demand and a slowdown in supply constraints," reads the report on the evolution of raw materials.

According to this World Bank report, released following the Annual Meetings of the bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "almost all commodity prices recovered in the third quarter of this year, after strong declines at the beginning of the year due to the covid-19 pandemic".

Compared to April levels, "crude prices doubled, sustained by strong production cuts decreed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), but remain one-third lower than pre-pandemic levels," the document adds.

For World Bank analysts, "the main risk to forecasting raw material prices is the duration of the pandemic, including the risk of intensification of a second wave in the Northern Hemisphere and the speed with which the vaccine is developed and distributed".

The pandemic, incidentally, is seen as "a shock to global commodity markets, presenting a challenge to policy makers" in the countries most dependent on oil exports, such as Portuguese-speaking countries Angola and Equatorial Guinea, in addition to Brazil, the largest producer among Portuguese-speaking countries, with a production of about 3 million barrels a day.

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